Research and Development

ONS is reintroducing Labour Force Survey data and providing information to users ahead of its inclusion in next week’s monthly Labour Market Statistics publication. In line with other countries, ONS has been facing the challenge of falling response rates for many of its household surveys in recent years.

In this Blog Liz McKeown explains how since suspending the Labour Force Survey estimates, in line with its improvement plan, ONS has improved these data by using more up to date information about the UK population and summarises the picture that they now paint when viewed alongside our other measures of the UK’s jobs market.

Read the Blog at https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2024/02/05/how-ons-is-improving-the-labour-force-survey/

ONS produces a huge amount of high-quality data covering the economy, environment, crime and immigration. Over the last few years, It has also been focusing its efforts on producing much more granular estimates so it can measure how society and the economy is changing at the local level. In this Blog Emma Hickman explains how this work is progressing and what insights ONS has produced. 

Read the Blog at https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2024/02/05/how-the-ons-is-transforming-its-statistics-for-local-areas/

2023 has been a radical and transformative year for the Office for National Statistics, with work underway to future-proof its figures in a number of its outputs.   

National Statistician, Sir Ian Diamond, joins podcast host Miles Fletcher for the latest episode of Statistically Speaking, to look back over the past 12 months and discuss why change was needed. 

From the public consultation on the future of population statistics, and whether the country need another Census, to new models for measuring the labour market – the importance of surveys and the use of new sources of data is high on the agenda. 

Read the Blog at https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/12/21/podcast-year-in-review-2023/ and listen to the Podcast at the linked from the title above.

ONS has published an update on planned improvements to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and its publication plans for UK labour market releases on Tuesday 14 November and Tuesday 12 December 2023.

ONS will share more information on both the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the transition to the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) in future updates.

How can an overall picture of health in the UK be created, when the data produced by each of the four nations can be different? Statistical coherence is about bringing together statistics on the same topic to give a better understanding of the part of the world they describe. Becky Tinsley explains how ONS, the devolved administrations, and health bodies, are working together to improve the comparability of UK health data, allowing a better join of the pieces of the puzzle.

ONS is transitioning to better methods of data collection fit for the digital age. The changes in progress mean some temporary disruption as traditional surveys are updated or replaced. Darren Morgan has posted to explain how ONS is adapting its approach to maintain the accuracy of the key labour market statistics during this transitional phase.  

Facts and figures are coming at us fast every day, but ‘what’ or ‘who’ to trust: mainstream media, public figures and national institutions, or those random strangers in our social media feeds?   

In this episode of Statistically Speaking ONS focuses on the use of data in public discussion and debate.  Joining podcast host Miles Fletcher to guide users carefully through the minefields of misinformation are Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge; Ed Humpherson, Head of the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR); and award-winning data journalist and writer Simon Rogers, who is Data Editor at Google. 

Read the Blog at https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/10/05/communicating-statistics-crossing-the-minefields-of-misinformation/ and listen to the Podcast via the link above.

Global issues, such as climate change, population growth and inflation to name a few, are best understood with the benefit of good global statistics. So, to that end, ONS is working in partnership with a number of countries worldwide with the ultimate aim of raising the world’s statistical capabilities.  

In the latest episode of Statistically Speaking, podcast host Miles Fletcher chats to the head of the Ghanaian Statistical Service, Professor Samuel Annim; Emily Poskett, Head of International Development at ONS; and Tim Harris of the ONS Data Science Campus’s international development team, about what international partnerships are achieving. 

You can listen to all episodes of Statistically Speaking alongside a written transcript at   https://sites.libsyn.com/397223/website

ONS has published its first annual review looking at the progress that has been made in the past year towards making the UK statistical system more inclusive. Debra Prestwood updates users on what’s been achieved so far, as well as the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead (see https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/05/31/collaborating-to-make-the-uk-statistical-system-more-inclusive/)

ONS has published a response to the user engagement exercise on a new mortality assumptions method for national population projections, which it undertook earlier this year. Users of demographic statistics were invited to feedback on a new mortality projection method for national population projections.? Overall, responses showed general support for the new mortality projection method, especially the use of a long time series of data to inform the model.

As a result, and with agreement from the National Population Projections (NPP) Committee who oversee the production of NPPs, ONS plan sto adopt the new mortality projection methodology.

The ONS Labour Force Survey is one of the UK’s biggest regular household surveys and a key source of economic data. Providing detailed insight on employment and economic activity down to local level, the survey is the foundation stone of official monthly employment statistics. Last year ONS unveiled plans to transform this important data source. Alex Lambert updates on progress so far – and reveals when the new-look data will be available.

Many economic forces are global, but some of the solutions to issues like competitiveness, productivity and inequality might begin on our doorsteps. In this episode of Statistically Speaking, ONS shines the spotlight on local data and look at how good statistics for small areas make for better targeted policy interventions, and more effective use of valuable public resources.

With growing concerns about the mortality outcomes for different ethnic groups during the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers worked quickly to understand the impact of the virus using the best data available to them. However, ethnicity information is collected in different ways across the health sector. Researchers do not all have access to the same data sources, which can lead to differences in estimates. In this ONS blog Rose Drummond provides an update on work being undertaken with Welcome and the Race Equality Foundation to provide clarity around estimates for England.

Highly mobile populations, such as students, are traditionally difficult to measure. Where students make up a larger proportion of the population, for some local authorities this can result in lower levels of accuracy measuring the total population.

The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) carried out a review of population estimates and projections in 2021. They recommended ensuring that future population statistics are based on sound methods and suitable data, and to complete detailed case studies on cities with large student populations. ONS has set out its plan to meet these recommendations in its update on research and plans for population estimates and projections – see https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/updateonresearchandplansforpopulationestimatesandprojections/may2022

ONS has published an article exploring the feasibility of maintaining an anonymised person-level longitudinal data source for England and Wales, based on the 2021 Census and then updated each year to reflect population change (births, deaths and migration). ONS has given this ambition for an anonymised person-level longitudinal data source as the Census 2021 Data Asset (CDA).

In an uncertain world, how is public data helping us to tackle complex and cross-cutting issues in society?   

This is just one question ONS answers in the latest episode of?Statistically Speaking, as the Office takes a closer look at an aspect of the its work that is less well-known but arguably just as important. Read the blog at: https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/01/31/boosting-the-uks-research-capabilities-to-help-solve-the-challenges-of-the-day/

ONS has been seeking feedback from users on the impacts and implications from a prospective change to the method for producing mortality assumptions for national population projections This article explains the new prospective mortality assumption setting methodology and highlights findings from comparing this methodology with the 2018-based and 2020-based national population projections produced using ONS’s current methodology.

ONS has published an update to its feasibility research on producing population statistics by ethnic group from administrative data. This research covers both England and Wales, and includes comparisons with the 2021 Census estimates.  

By combining ethnicity data from eight administrative data sources and the 2011 Census, ONS established an ethnicity for 84.9% of people in the 2020 admin-based population base for England, and 88.5% of people in the 2020 admin-based population base for Wales. Compared with the 2021 Census estimates, the 2020 admin-based ethnicity statistics for both England and Wales have a smaller proportion of people in the Asian, Black, Mixed and Other ethnic groups, and a larger proportion in the White ethnic group. They do however broadly align with the 2021 Census in showing how ethnic diversity varies across the country.

ONS has also published its feasibility research on producing multivariate housing by ethnicity statistics for England and Wales using administrative data. By combining admin-based housing and admin-based ethnicity datasets ONS has established that the proportion of addresses which had at least one property characteristic, at least one person resident and at least one person with a stated ethnicity was 79.0% for England and 78.1% for Wales. Regionally, the address-level coverage was lowest in London (69.4%) and highest in the North East (82.4%). 

ONS has also published an update to its feasibility research on producing multivariate income by ethnicity statistics on the population from administrative data. By linking together admin-based income and admin-based ethnicity datasets, ONS has established an income and a stated ethnicity for 77.1% of people in England, and 82.1% of people in Wales, aged 16 years and over in the Statistical Population Dataset (SPD) v3.0, tax year ending 2018.

The 2021 Census has delivered a wealth of insight over recent months and will soon embark on an innovative new ‘open source’ phase. In addition, ONS is evolving to deliver more frequent, timely and relevant population statistics to better meet user needs. Underpinned by a suite of research and evidence, this year will see a call for views on its ambitious programme of work. In this blog Here, Jen Woolford explains what is coming in 2023. 

ONS published its latest admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) and an update to ts research into the dynamic population model (DPM). The aim of the DPM is to estimate the population, including how it changes, in a timely way. This will enable us to better respond to user needs. 

ONS has produced ABPEs for mid-year 2011 to 2022 for all 331 local authorities in England and Wales. ABPEs for June 2022, produced four months earlier than by using the current mid-year estimates (MYE), showed a 0.8% increase on the June 2021 estimates.

The ONS Centre for International Migration has published a number of international migration releases; accompanied by a blog, which provides context and a look ahead to what the future holds.

Alongside this research ONS is also sharing an update on the dynamic population model. This model aims to estimate population in a timely way, to better respond to user needs. This research update is accompanied by a blog around our research and progress in transforming the whole population statistics system.

ONS has published its research into the new dynamic population model (DPM). It has now produced population estimates for mid-year 2011 to 2022 covering 14 case study local authorities (LAs). These research outputs are not official statistics on the population. The DPM uses a statistical modelling approach and draws upon a range of data sources. By using these new methods, the DPM estimates for 13 of these LAs showed no more than a 3.6 per cent variation from the 2021 Census 2021. 

ONS has focused our in-depth analysis in an article on two local authorities. Blackpool, for which DPM estimates were very close to the 2021 Census estimates, and Cambridge, which had the highest percentage difference from the Census figures.

The ONS is currently transforming the way it produces statistics on research and development. In this post Heather Bovill guides users around the latest figures and explains why one of ONS’s bulletins has changed slightly.

ONS has published new feasibility research on developing administrative-based property floor area statistics for England and Wales: 2021. This research explores the feasibility of using Valuation Office Agency (VOA) and Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data to produce a harmonised measure of floor area across property types that could be used to develop an alternative measure of overcrowding that considers living space per person, instead of using occupancy ratings. 

This research is a progression of previous research into property floor area using VOA data

see: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/methodologies/adminbasedstatisticsforpropertyfloorspacefeasibilityresearchenglandandwales

Research and development – invariably known is closely linked to economic growth. Investment by companies in new products, software, and improved systems plays an important role in increasing both output and productivity. In this blog Heather Bovill talks about the important work taking place to improve the ONS’s measurement of this vital activity.

The results of the first element of this project presenting R&D estimates covering 2014 to 2020 were subsequently published on 29 September. Heather Bovill explains how the numbers have been improved (see https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UKONS/bulletins/32f8c3a).

ONS has published new feasibility research on developing subnational multivariate income by ethnicity statistics from administrative data for England.
This initial case study is the first time that ONS has produced an initial assessment of the coverage for admin-based income by ethnicity statistics for the tax year ending 2016 as part of its feasibility research. 

By combining admin-based ethnicity statistics and admin-based income statistics ONS has been  able to establish both an ethnicity and an income for 77.0 per cent of people aged 16 years and over in the Statistical Population Dataset for England.

The UK statistical system works best when there is collaboration between statistical producers – ONS maximises the value of data when it joins up publications on the same topic to present a rounded and coherent picture. Debra Prestwood explains the latest work being undertaken across government bodies to provide the public with coherent and accessible statistics where there are multiple producers.

ONS has published the latest development to its experimental admin-based income statistics (ABIS), including the first release of an accompanying Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report. This is a short methods change article, accompanied by detailed ABIS datasets for user exploration. This continues ONS’s investigation into the feasibility of using administrative data to measure income for small areas. Using improved methodology and incorporating two additional administrative data sources from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP): Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and Universal Credit (UC), ONS has produced experimental ABIS for the tax year ending 2018, reflecting the last time period for which ONS has all administrative data sources available

ONS has published new feasibility research on developing admin-based housing stock statistics for England and Wales: 2020 as well as summary statistics to create an admin-based housing stock profile for England and Wales: 2020. This research explores the feasibility of using Valuation Office Agency (VOA) data and ONS’s residential address frame to produce census-like housing stock statistics. 

ONS produces a range of statistics showing the income, spending and wealth of British households, together forming an important part of the overall picture of the economy. These statistics are a vital source of information for understanding people’s financial well-being including the effects from the rising cost of living. ONS’s Adrian Chesson talks about the consultation launched on 1 December on its plans to transform these key statistics.